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This report analyzes the activity of more than 500 million shoppers worldwide to identify trends and changes in year-over-year shopping activity. It represents the truest picture of shopping today.

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SHOPPER ATTRACTION

The change in the number of shopper visits

22%

SHOPPER SPEND

The combined change in average order values and conversion rates

-3%

SHOPPING INDEX

+ 18 %

DIGITAL COMMERCE GROWTH

Growth = (∆ Shopper Attraction) X (∆ Shopper Spend)


The digital commerce refrain continues - growth, soaring traffic and more mobile shoppers. A 22% increase in traffic in Q3 2016 was well ahead of Q3 2015’s YoY growth of 13%, indicating continued shopper migration to digital. Lower conversion rates pulled visit spend down, but these metrics are deceiving in today’s world where shoppers are making more visits across channels.

Mobile Shoppers Show Intent

Buying Intent, which measures which visitors are looking to buy and which visitors are just browsing, ticked up to 18% in Q3 2016 from 17% in Q3 2015 across all devices. Mobile shoppers made their intentions clear, showing their highest Buying Intent during a non-peak season, at 17%, up 6% from the same period last year.
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COUNTRY

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18 % 17 % 21 % 18 %

Intent is UP 6% on Phones

BUYING INTENT

MOBILE

TABLET

COMPUTER

BROWSERS

Incentives Remain High Prior to the Upcoming Peak Season

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COUNTRY
VERTICAL

Average order value fell, however free shipping increased from 65% to 67% YoY. In parallel to the increased rate of free shipping, there was a decrease in the number of units per order. This is a possible indication of retailer acceptance of shoppers’ desire to shop in increments and offer the free shipping benefit either without threshold, or at a lower value. This comes at a time when order discounts made a noticeable jump, again putting pressure on retailers’ bottom lines.

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FREE SHIPPING

67%

$119

AVERAGE ORDER VALUE

16%

AVERAGE ORDER DISCOUNT

Looking Ahead to the Christmas Holiday Shopping Season

As retailers prepare for the biggest shopping time of the year, here are some expected key shopping trends. Remember, this year’s peak season, defined as Tuesday, November 22nd to Monday, December 26th, includes two additional shopping days*.

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2 3% 13% 55% 3 3%

1. DIGITAL COMMERCE GROWTH

INCREASE IN DIGITAL TRAFFIC
2. THE MOBILE MAJORITY
TRAFFIC
ORDERS
3. PRODUCT ASSORTMENT EXPANDS
MORE PRODUCTS SOLD

Digital Commerce Growth

Digital traffic is expected to swell 23% over last year’s level, and will combine with near-flat spending to deliver 22% revenue growth this year. Retailers should expect to see more buyers return multiple times within the holiday season, as 18% of orders are expected to come from buyers that place multiple orders, up from 17% last shopping season.

The Mobile Majority

Mobile will reach yet another set of milestones this season, as phones are expected to account for 55% of traffic and 33% of orders. Phones own certain days; traffic on Christmas Day, Christmas Eve and Boxing Day are expected surpass 64% share, while Black Friday will fall just shy of 60%. Overall, mobile is expected to drive 70% of the season’s order growth, and 90% of the increase in traffic.

Product Assortment Expands

Shoppers will enjoy a greater selection of product this year, as retailers widen their product assortment to provide greater choice. Retailers are expected to sell 13% more products than last year, as digital product catalogs continue an expansive trend. Simultaneously, the number of products per order are expected to fall by 5% over last year, an early indication of the impact of distributed commerce and accelerated payment options like Apple Pay and PayPal that enable orders of one or few items per order.

Social is Happening, Especially on Phones

Traffic from social media continues to rise, now accounting for 3.1% of all digital traffic – up 55% over last year, while social traffic from mobile pushed over 4%, up 57% YoY

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Rising & Falling

Here’s a look at what’s up and down this period:

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RISING

MOBILE BUYING INTENT

Phones closed in on other devices, with intent up 8%.

TRAFFIC

Growth in shopping visits, at 22%, far outpaced Q3 2015.

VISIT SPEND

Conversion rate trended downward overall, while average order value fell slightly.

SITE SEARCH USAGE

Site search usage fell, which will lead retailers to offer new methods of product discovery, even experimenting with technologies like shopping bots.

PRODUCTS PER ORDER

Shoppers included 2% fewer products per order in Q3 2016, continuing the downward trend over the past few quarters.

FALLING

Methodology

This comprehensive report analyzes the activity of more than 500 million shoppers worldwide to identify trends and changes in shopping activity.
The sample set of digital commerce sites included in the report represents more than 800 sites and spans more than 40 regions. The top five countries – United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Canada – represent approximately 60% of the sites.
To qualify for inclusion in the analysis set, a digital commerce site must have transacted throughout the analysis periods, in this case Q3 2016 and Q3 2015, and meet a monthly minimum visit threshold. Additional data hygiene factors are applied to ensure consistent metric calculation.
The Shopping Index is published quarterly. Data footnotes are noted inline throughout the report to provide additional clarity on analysis.
Any forecasts noted within the Shopping Index are forward-looking projections based on current and prior values and as such should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results.
The Shopping Index is not indicative of the operational performance of the Salesforce Commerce Cloud or its reported financial metrics including GMV growth and comparable customer GMV growth.
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